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| Author | Topic: Microsoft (MSFT) |
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InvestorGuide Daily Administrator |
posted 04-24-2000 07:16 PM
 
The Justice Department and 19 states are leaning toward asking a court to split Microsoft (MSFT) into two or three separate companies, people familiar with the discussions said. Microsoft shares dropped more than 15% today.(source: Washington Post) http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A2076-2000Apr23.html |
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InvestorGuide Weekly Administrator |
posted 04-24-2000 04:41 PM
Microsoft's Earnings press release: http://www.microsoft.com/msft/earnings/earnq300/earnq300.htm James Cramer talks about why he sold Microsoft, a company that has been a stalwart in his portfolio for many years. (source: The Street) http://www.thestreet.com/funds/smarter/924910.html |
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mojo |
posted 04-24-2000 11:35 AM
I agree with the other posters here that the less-than-stellar earnings report plus the less-than-stellar outlook plus the possibility of a breakup should be weighing on the stock... but how low does it have to go before it becomes a buy? Before the latest conference call I felt like MSFT was worth $180 a share if not broken up and $130 a share if broken up. Based on the latest numbers, I'm inclined to bump these down, but only a little, maybe $175 if not broken up and $125 if broken up. In light of the reports this morning that a breakup is becoming increasingly likely, I'm leaning towards the $125 number rather than the $175 number. Either way, with it trading in the 60s now I'm buying and plan to buy more. |
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newsman |
posted 04-24-2000 10:52 AM
From Reuters: "The Justice Department is close to recommending that a judge split Microsoft Corp. in two to remedy abuse of its monopoly in personal computer operating systems, a source familiar with the case said on Monday. Under the recommendation, one part would manufacture the Windows operating system, including functions to browse the Internet. The second company would market everything else -- including the Microsoft Office programs -- and would also be allowed to sell Internet software, the source said. In its recommendations to the judge overseeing the Microsoft antitrust trial, the department is also likely to seek stringent limits on the firm's conduct while the case is being appealed, the source said. Microsoft shares were trading down 13 at 65 15/16 on Monday morning. A spokeswoman for the Justice Department had no comment. A spokesman for Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, who is heading the states' effort, also had no comment. Microsoft said such a remedy was unjustified. "We believe that there is nothing in the record that would support such a radical and extreme remedy as breaking up Microsoft and it would be bad for consumers and the entire industry," said Jim Cullinan, a spokesman for Microsoft. District Court Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson ruled earlier this month that the company had violated the nation's antitrust laws, saying it abused its monopoly in the Windows operating system, harming competitors, consumers and other companies. Three U.S. newspapers, USA Today, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, reported earlier on Monday the likelihood that the Justice Department would seek to break up Microsoft. Jackson has asked the Justice Department and 19 states, which together brought the case against Microsoft, to offer either joint or separate plans to remedy the problems found by the judge this week. Once the government files, Microsoft will reply on May 10 and the government will file once more on May 17. Jackson will hear oral arguments on a penalty on May 24. The source said Attorney General Janet Reno has already been briefed on her department's proposal. The Justice approach is being reviewed by the states as they decide whether to come on board with the plan." |
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InvestorGuide Daily Administrator |
posted 04-21-2000 06:49 PM
In brief: - According reports, Zurich American Insurance, the primary Microsoft (MSFT) insurer, filed a lawsuit asking a federal court in the state of Washington to rule that the coverage it wrote for Microsoft does not apply to antitrust claims. |
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dude |
posted 04-21-2000 11:26 AM
> Just wondering why you trust the numbers more than the words... In general, I prefer numbers to words because numbers are either right or wrong whereas words leave a lot of room for ambiguity. For most companies, the words tend to be better than the reality ("Next year is going to be great for us!"); for Microsoft, the words tend to be worse than the reality ("There are a lot of risks and uncertainties in the coming quarter"). Of course, you're right that numbers can be used to mislead, but the quarterly report almost always has enough information in it that you can get the real picture. Even if a company reports above-expected earnings "excluding certain one-time charges", you can see what those charges were and decide for yourself whether they're one-time or not. Similarly, you can see whether some of the revenues were actually barter transactions ("We'll give you $10 million in advertising space, you give us $10 million in advertising space, and we'll both be swimming in money!"). You can see right through tricks like these if you look closely enough at the financials. |
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heister |
posted 04-21-2000 11:03 AM
humanity wrote: "It could be a scary day on Monday, but there is a reason MSFT reports on a day like yesterday - right after the bell, and before a three day weekend, when everyone has a chance to cool down." Or you could also argue that it allows people to take 3 days to really digest what this all means and have them trying to sell as much as possible right out of the gate. dude, I haven't followed Microsoft nearly as long or as closely as you have i'm sure, but i'm a bit unclear on this point that you made: "I'd pay more attention to the numbers than what the execs are saying" As we all know, anyone can make any numbers say anything. Accountants are especially good at doing that. Of course its also true that good PR people can make any story palatable. Just wondering why you trust the numbers more than the words... |
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dude |
posted 04-21-2000 10:09 AM
I haven't had a chance to listen to the conference call. After I do, I'll post again. For now, suffice it to say that I am a little disappointed by 43 cents (I was expecting 45), but I'm not hitting the panic button over MSFT's pessimistic comments. They make pessimistic comments about the outlook EVERY QUARTER. MSFT has exceeded analyst expectations for 32 straight quarters, and the way they manage it is by talking down the analysts. I'd pay more attention to the numbers than what the execs are saying... and as I said, I'll post again after I've had a chance to check out the financials. |
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humanity |
posted 04-21-2000 09:59 AM
It seems the conference call was pretty horrendous. Hear's an excerpt from Cramer, whose fund decided to sell off their entire position of MSFT after the call: "The guidance is none too good. They are really taking analysts down. It is a major downbeat call. PC growth has slowed. The Street has to come down to 15% growth. This was a big miss and it will get bigger. The company is very cautious. I have never heard this company talk down earnings before. The worst it's ever said is that it would keep its numbers the same. Analysts were told to take a nickel out of their numbers; that is the most expensive nickel in history. Can't be optimistic about this one. Not at all. Analysts seem stunned. Terrible transition and terrible timing for Mister Softee, I am afraid." (source: TheStreet.com) And this was only the first piece of commentary I read - no doubt there are umpteen others. It could be a scary day on Monday, but there is a reason MSFT reports on a day like yesterday - right after the bell, and before a three day weekend, when everyone has a chance to cool down. |
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Earnings Administrator |
posted 04-20-2000 07:30 PM
Company (Ticker): Reported, Expected, same q last year Microsoft (MSFT): $0.43, $0.41, $0.35 |
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lockin |
posted 04-20-2000 03:50 PM
Consensus analyst estimate is 41 cents. Whisper number is 43 cents. My personal guess is 45 cents. |
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slurm |
posted 04-20-2000 12:39 PM
Any predictions on what numbers MSFT will report today? |
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InvestorGuide Daily Administrator |
posted 04-19-2000 06:18 PM
In brief: - Microsoft (MSFT) launched its new operating system for handheld devices, which is intended to carve a place for Microsoft in a market dominated by Palm (PALM). |
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InvestorGuide Daily Administrator |
posted 04-18-2000 07:53 PM
In brief: - As a federal judge prepares to decide Microsoft's (MSFT) fate for breaking federal antitrust law, CEO Steven Ballmer denyied that the company had broken any law, questioned some of the judge's factual findings and said the company had no reason to change its business practices. |
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InvestorGuide Daily Administrator |
posted 04-17-2000 06:32 PM
In brief: - Microsoft is battling a second security problem in Web management software used on hundreds of thousands of Web sites around the world. The new vulnerability potentially exposes hundreds of thousands of sites to denial-of-service attacks. |
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