posted 01-20-1999 12:19 PM         

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eagle, to reply to each of your points:

> the analysts have been consistently upgrading the stock from three months ago and raising their first quarter estimate expectations.
Analysts are lagging indicators. The earnings and the stock have done well, so all the analysts hop on board and say it's time to buy.

> the earnings look to be growing steadily over the past year.
No argument here.

> the performance of the stock as of late last year has been very good.
To a fundamental investor, this would be a sign that it's not time to buy, since you're paying more for what you're getting. (To a momentum investor, it could be a good sign.)

I agree that the stock and the company have done well in the past year. But will it continue? Consider this excerpt from yesterday's earnings report from Microsoft:
"Microsoft SQL Server 7.0 was launched to over 45,000 customers in 53 countries around the world, and made a clean sweep of COMDEX awards, bringing home the "Best of Productivity Software" and "Best of Show." As of the end of 1998, Microsoft is now with SQL Server the second-largest database vendor, moving up from fifth-largest in the past two years. SQL Server is also growing at nearly twice the rate of the next fastest competitor and nearly three times Oracle’s CY98 growth rate."
I agree with Srini. If MSFT wasn't in the picture, ORCL would be a great stock to hold for the long run. But the MSFT threat is too great for me to consider buying ORCL, especially now that the price has risen so much.

posted 01-14-1999 10:20 PM         

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Oracle just announced that it has established a $100 million venture capital fund that will be used to invest in companies that are developing Internet products and services based on the Oracle8i platform. By setting up the fund, Oracle hopes to boost the development of Oracle8i-based products specifically for content management, electronic commerce, business intelligence, and other end-to-end Internet solutions. The fund will source, execute, and manage equity investments both in start-up companies and established corporations that are looking to develop new products or re-architecture offerings based on Oracle technology, Oracle said. Companies that receive Oracle funding will also benefit from the company's marketing, product branding, access to Oracle's technology, developers, technical support, and early releases of new software. Oracle will work with venture capital companies to select funding candidates and is currently evaluating investment opportunities.

I think this idea makes a LOT of sense.

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