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| Author | Topic: Qualcomm (QCOM) |
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InvestorGuide Daily Administrator |
Qualcomm bought software maker Snaptrack for about $1 billion. The news could not keep Qualcomm's stock from falling over 15% after the company's warning that shipments of its CDMA chips and mobile phones could fall in the second quarter. http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1004-200-1532157.html |
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Earnings Administrator |
Qualcomm (QCOM): $0.25 reported, $0.24 expected, $0.08 same quarter last year. |
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smario |
Did you all hear that Qualcomm, said it is going to ship fewer chips and cell phones in Q2 than Q1? Perhaps demand was overestimated a tad by all the salivating and bandwagon jumping analysts? I bet that guy who had that high-profile (and what I would call irresponsible and naive) $1000 price target is loving this ![]() |
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Machiavelli |
The Fool, on the analyst who made that extreme recommendation: "Qualcomm is the owner of Code Division Multiple Access Protocol (CDMA), the most data-friendly wireless protocol in existence. Every company wishing to use CDMA must pay Qualcomm a royalty of 4.5%. Good stuff, that royalty. Qualcomm incurs very low cost of goods sold in receiving royalty payments, perhaps less than 3%. But the PaineWebber analyst's numbers are predicated on three billion phones sold in 2010 at an average price of $180, with a 60x terminal value thereafter. And that is complete bunk. Highly improbable, and most of all, extremely irresponsible. But analysts aren't paid for their responsibility, they're paid to move securities, particularly ones that their companies make a market in, which is the case here with PaineWebber." By the way, most of the world is on the GSM standard, not CDMA. So Qualcomm is going to have to do alot of work and suppress a lot of non-CDMA innovation to get this kind of market-share. |
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Trader Joe |
The market seems to believe this analyst, as the stock jumped 77 points after he made his recommendation (it has fallen dramatically since that time, though). I agree that any ten-year prediction from an analyst should be taken with a heavy dose of skepticism. Also I find it strange that he only gave it a 'buy' rating, rather than a 'strong buy', considering he expects it to double in the next year. Maybe he's not as confident of his prediction as the market seems to think? |
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smario |
Just be careful with this prediction! Remember, ten years ago, the prediction was that DOS would be the dominating operating system for years to come. Same with CDMA...while it has its backers, there are many in the wireless world who believe CDMA will quickly become antiquated and taken over by other technology within just a couple years. If that were to happen, I doubt Qualcomm will be able to say hi to the 1000 mark. Technology changes so fast - I don't know how any analyst can predict that current technology will dominate ten years from now. |
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Art Vandelay |
This morning PaineWebber analyst Walter Piecyk initiated coverage of QCOM with a "buy" rating and set a 12-month price target of $1000. Piecyk believes that by the end of the next decade, 85% of the mobile phones will use CDMA technology, up from the current 18%. That would translate into a royalty stream of $20 billion. |
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newsman |
Qualcomm is on track to be the best performing stock of the year. Just found this on a news site: Qualcomm erupted to well over $400 a share and announced a 4-for-1 stock split in early November after shattering analysts' estimates in its fourth quarter. Already dubbed by some as the "wireless" Microsoft, Qualcomm has become something of a research and development giant in the burgeoning wireless market. With so many leading original electronics manufacturers and technology stalwarts basing their future growth on the proliferation of wireless Internet appliances, Qualcomm stands to profit not only from its products but its patents, too. In fact, Qualcomm's trying to wean itself away from the manufacturing side after selling off its wireless network division earlier this year. As CEO Irwin Jacobs puts it "we'll let others deal with wrapping plastic around chips. Qualcomm has always been based on technical innovation." Qualcomm is now more interested in developing the next generation of wireless technology for everything from connecting to the Internet to transmitting huge packets of data between businesses or individuals. Qualcomm also will continue designing the computer chips that run mobile phones. One big potential hit is a new wireless technology, called "high data rate," or HDR, that's capable of zapping video from the Net over radio waves. Analysts estimate that by 2005, more than half of the world's 1 billion cellular phones will use Qualcomm's technology. That could yield hundreds of millions of dollars in royalties annually. "They've got the core technology for the next millennium," said analyst Tim Luke of Lehman Brothers. Merrill Lynch estimates Qualcomm's operating margins will jump from 7.6 percent in 1998 to more than 32 percent in 2000. Those who think Qualcomm shares might be overvalued probably are the same people who missed out on the stock at $25. "A year ago, my biggest scare was whether someone would buy us at such a low price," Irwin said. "I still don't understand why nobody did. Now what's keeping me up at night is worrying about how to capitalize on all these opportunities." |
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pokeboy |
"A tough call" indeed ![]() QCOM announced this morning that it will sell its handset business to Kyocera |
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smario |
belgarion, I can't answer your questions, but I was involved in a good discussion over the weekend surrounding wireless technology and new business ideas, and it came up that Qualcomm doesn't have the near total-patent of CDMA technology that they'd like you to think they do. The gist of the conversation was perhaps they aren't worth nearly as much as their stock price reflects - though it is always a tough call in the wireless world. |
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belgarion |
mattbrown101, what can you tell me about the CDMA technology? My question is surrounding broadband - i'm looking for wireless technology and communications companies who are focusing on wireless broadband communications, whether they are terrestrial or satellite; any wireless company that is not focusing on this as a long term goal I believe will be shoved out, regardless of a current stock price. So I'm just wondering how this outlook fits within Qualcomm's goals and scalability. I've heard that CDMA is to Qualcomm like Windows is to MSFT - both have virtual total control of the patents. But just as Windows is increasingly seen as potentially incompatible with true revolutionary growth in the future, is CDMA the same way? Thanks in advance for any info you may have. |
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mattbrown101 |
Not much talk here for a stock doing as well is QCom is. I've been hearing 8 for 1 on other message boards. |
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Joey Joe Joe |
I'm still confused about all these splits. Why choose a 4-1 split, over a 2-1 or even a 3-1? What kinds of factors going into making these decisions, and what are the benefits inherenet in each of the increments of splits? Also, the split for Qualcomm hasn't been approved yet...the board will hold a special meeting in December to vote on the it. |
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newsman |
QCOM is cruising. The earnings report was great. And now they're splitting 4-for-1. Occasionally a stock will split 3-for-1, but I can't remember the last time I saw a 4-for-1. |
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smartstart |
QCOM has joined up with MSFT in its attempt to overthrow Phone.com as the market leader in providing internet services to wireless subscribers. http://www.worldlyinvestor.com/article/article.jtmpl?article_id=3301 |
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