posted 04-26-2000 02:20 PM         

I predict that average daily Nasdaq volume for May 2001 will be 20% higher than that for May 2000. What do you predict?

I predict that the average beta of all stocks in the Merrill Lynch Internet Index will be 20% higher in May 2001 than in May 2000. What do you predict?

I predict that in the next twelve months, there will be at least two months in which fewer than 10 U.S. companies raise more than $100 million each in IPOs, and there will be at least two months in which more than 50 companies do so. What do you predict?

I predict that online advertising spending will be 60% higher in 2001 than in 2000 (same as in my earlier note). What do you predict?

posted 04-26-2000 10:12 AM         

"drkoop.com postponed release of its first-quarter earnings, warned they would be ugly, said it had cash to stay alive through the summer, and retained Bear Stearns to explore strategic alternatives.

A victim of its own bad marketing deals and the recent market downturn, drkoop.com painted a grim picture after the market closed today.

Last July, the company agreed to pay AOL $89 million over four years. As of Dec. 31, $65 million of that was still outstanding. Today, the company said it had renegotiated with AOL, converting all future cash commitments, estimated at $64 million, and warrants into a 10% equity stake."

posted 04-19-2000 03:57 PM         

Maybe this was my fault when I posted the article, but I think you are missing the scope of the piece. If you focus on Net companies--which is the context of the article--his comments make more sense.

Fewer IPOs: I think that as people begin to question the ability of non-profitable Net companies to survive, we will definitely see fewer of them coming public. Will the overall IPO market dry up?--no. Will it run hot and cold?--of course it will, that is saying something but saying nothing.

Less advertising: I am guessing that he meant people will see fewer net companies advertising, on TV, radio, the Super Bowl and online. I doubt he was making general statements about the future of all advertising. You make fine points, but I think your statement about the Super Bowl ads were more on point here.

Massive consolidation: In the dot-com world? I think it is a pretty educated guess. I am not sure what exactly you meant by your statement, but if you focus on dot-coms/net companies (not that I know what "dot-com" means these days) only, does that change your opinion? I think many players are going to be swallowed by bigger online companies, by brick-and-morter companies, or just disappear.

More stable prices: My interpretation of his statement was, in the long run, after the shakeout has occured, the tech markets will stabilize. In the short run, there is plenty of volatility in the future. However, as people are better able to value and assess these new companies, we should eventually return to a more stable, less high-flying market where hundred-point swings are rare--more like the old days. However, I think your point about online investing is a very good one and will have an impact.

posted 04-19-2000 02:02 PM         

- fewer IPOs: Over the next few months there will be fewer IPOs, and far fewer blockbuster IPOs. But the IPO market will continue to oscillate between hot and cold for the foreseeable future.

- less advertising: If he means less total advertising, I disagree. It will continue to rise 5-10%/year for the long term. If he means less online advertising, I disagree. It will rise about 80% this year, about 60% next year, about 40% the following year, then about 20-30% until it reaches a quarter to a half of total advertising spending. If he means fewer startups wasting millions on bad advertising campaigns, then I agree that it will taper off, but only as soon as the amount of VC money flowing into such companies tapers off.

- massive consolidation: In some markets, yes. In others, no.

posted 04-19-2000 12:15 PM         

"Many of the dot-com CEOs lacked depth, experience, and common business sense," he wrote in a letter on Forrester's discussion site. "There was a fanatical focus on valuation -- getting public and liquid -- while value -- what the customer eventually gets -- was a back-seat discussion."

Colony drew a sharp distinction between CEOs of Net startups and leaders of more established companies. Most Net executives, he said, seemed committed only for the short-term, unfazed by their highly fluid work force, and fixated on cliched and simplistic business models.

He also wasn't too impressed by many of their businesses.

"These companies are not built to withstand competition, they're not built to deliver sustained value, and they're not built to last," he wrote, offering this year's Super Bowl as an example of the lack of foresight.

Internet companies spent record sums on 30-second spots that in most cases proved to be "a phenomenal waste of money."

Colony had kind words for a few high-profile dot com executives, like Priceline founder Jay Walker, Amazon.com's Jeff Bezos, and eBay CEO Meg Whitman. Those few executives who possess a long-term vision and are willing to marshall the sales forces and put up the investments to back them will end up controlling most of the market. Weaker players, in the meantime, will be forced to drop out.

The future, Colony said, will be one with fewer IPOs, less advertising, massive consolidation, and more stable prices. In the meantime, many of those in-your-face upstarts will find themselves cowed into the shadow by those slow-moving, profitable "old economy" companies they once derided.

So where will all those 20-something Net millionaires end up? Colony issued the following prediction:

posted 04-17-2000 04:34 PM         

And anyway, common sense says most people are limited offline to there local shopping areas. So one bad experience at Barnes & Noble won't keep from you going back if it's five minutes away. But online, you can easily go from store to store.

posted 04-17-2000 03:09 PM         

quote:

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Originally posted by trendy:
That's exactly what I was saying, heister.

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