Who are the best stock pickers?

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Author	Topic: Who are the best stock pickers?
InvestorGuide Daily Administrator	posted 07-11-2000 06:11 PM To coincide with baseball's mid-summer classic, Fortune Magazine presents its list of Analyst All-stars. (source: Fortune) http://www.fortune.com/fortune/allstars/
hecubus	posted 07-11-2000 01:13 PM I said it before and now I have Cramer to back me up. He's a little more skeptical than even I am. I think he makes a good point about these being "bull market sites"--when it was easy to look good, these sites were popular. Now that the odds of making a good pick are greatly reduced, there is far less activity. From theStreet.com: "Did anybody read that puff piece about iexchange.com in the Heard on the Street column? I have been going to that site lately and, frankly, I think it is a bull-market site. I know that it has the rich and powerful backers that all sites seemed to get during that frenzied period. But as bad as you may think Wall Street research is, at least there is some rigor to the process. The folks who issue reports from Goldman and Merrill and First Boston have seen some cycles and have committees that have to buy into their recommendations. They can still produce some shoddy research, and, periodically, some research that is at the behest of the investment-banking types, but if analysts consistently blow up, they will find themselves out of jobs. I think sites like iexchange.com would never have been set up if it hadn't been so easy to make money in the market. Nobody would have accepted the sheer hubris of the site during any other market period except the one that ended in April of this year. That's one of the reasons that the site seems almost moribund to me. I didn't see a lot of current postings when I went many times last week, because I think a lot of these do-it-yourself research departments are giving up because of the difficulties of this tape. To which I say, hey, that makes sense. I don't want people advising me who have never seen the dark side of the moon. It's pretty chilly out there." quote: Originally posted by hecubus: I think it is nice that there is some accountability being brought to the world of individual stock pickers, but until there is some way to be sure that these people on Iexchange have only one identity, I will never use any of that information. There is too much anonymity and potential for incident. these individuals, who don't even need to post real names, have a financial incentive to create multiple "personalities" and hope that one of them gets lucky. These folks have similar insidious incentives to deceive you as well, so watch out. The other problem I have is--everyone argues for long-term, buy-and-hold strategies for investing. Yet, the numbers that will make these stock-pickers attractive is 1000% gain in one month. That is something that happens because of luck, not because of skill. What is the liklihood that you will be able to watch someone create a portfolio on these sites and then see how it does over the span of years, not months or weeks? I am dubious, I would expect people on these sites to come and go and disappear all the time. Who knows, maybe I will be wrong, but I am more interested in bringing accountability to the professional world than to the individual, anonymous investor.
KeithG	posted 07-05-2000 08:31 AM Hey, here's another part of theStreet's ongoing Analyst ranking series, but this is the good stuff...the analysts who tell the truth, even when it hurts: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/analystrankings/985397.html
InvestorGuide Weekly Administrator	posted 07-03-2000 10:57 AM The NYSE's decision to punish former banking analyst Tom Hanley for aggressively spreading a merger rumor has left other outspoken stock analysts wondering just how far they can go when communicating market chatter to the public and their clients. (source: TheStreet) http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/brokerages/983299.html
InvestorGuide Weekly Administrator	posted 07-03-2000 10:55 AM Market Guide, in conjunction with Multex Investor and Sage Online, presented its first annual Halftime Report Series examining the status of analyst predictions and the market at mid-year. http://www.marketguide.com/mgi/research/jun2000/ar_halftime_06262000_tx.asp
Machiavelli	posted 06-30-2000 09:15 AM Here's why I can't stand analysts. Yesterday, one of them (I apologize, but I don't remember who) lowered their price target on Compaq from 45 to 25 (it was trading at 28, so a real stretch for this guy!) because he said Compaq had too much inventory. Compaq promptly closed at 25. Go analyst! Oh wait... But finally, a company took a stand. After the bell, the Compaq chief said that the problem is not too many inventories, but not enough! In fact, they are having trouble filling orders (in a positive way), and this analyst doesn't know a thing about their company. Too many companies are letting irresponsible analysts go to far in trying to get their name in the news or get on CNBC. It's time more companies responded to these downgrades/reasonings in order to protect their shareholders. However, on the plus side for me, it was ANALYSTS who helped the telecom market today by saying yesterday's worries about the state of the industry are unfounded. I guess they aren't all bad...
scripter	posted 06-23-2000 06:02 PM Anyone who has read the posts on this Tomments shouldn't be surprised by this Goldman Sachs guy. 7 of the 8 top-tier companies are Goldman clients, compared to 0 of the 15 in the bottom tier. That's a little too skewed to be just a coincidence. I plan to add this guy to my growing list of people who aren't worth listening to. quote: Originally posted by dude: Here is yet another article about an analyst who (seemingly) has succumbed to conflicts of interest: http://www.ecommercetimes.com/news/viewpoint2000/view-000623-1.shtml
dude	posted 06-23-2000 05:15 PM Here is yet another article about an analyst who (seemingly) has succumbed to conflicts of interest: http://www.ecommercetimes.com/news/viewpoint2000/view-000623-1.shtml
hecubus	posted 06-23-2000 10:40 AM What are you talking about? Maybe I am out of the loop, but my interest has been piqued. Could you explain who this guy is and where you heard of him? I would be reluctant to follow these people as well...a lot of people just got lucky by rising to prominance in an unheard of bull market. Now they can flaunt these gaudy numbers without have any real skill or insight. quote: Originally posted by Trosyngen: I can't help but be reluctant to follow the gains of virtual enigma multi-millionaire investors like Joe Monroe of Seattle. Here is a day trader, bottom fish, grave dancer of whatever he is... going from being a bull market momentum player to being a value buy-and-hold guy and amassing more wealth than the expert analysts in a period on 3 years. Is this guy a psychic, lucky or an inside trader? Just wondering.
Trosyngen	posted 06-23-2000 12:05 AM I can't help but be reluctant to follow the gains of virtual enigma multi-millionaire investors like Joe Monroe of Seattle. Here is a day trader, bottom fish, grave dancer of whatever he is... going from being a bull market momentum player to being a value buy-and-hold guy and amassing more wealth than the expert analysts in a period on 3 years. Is this guy a psychic, lucky or an inside trader? Just wondering.
dude	posted 06-22-2000 02:15 PM That's one of the sites that Tom talked about in the Tomments article that got this conversation started. My opinion on Validea is to wait and see... I like their approach and it looks promising, but they don't seem to update the info as often as they could and they include only excerpts rather than links to complete articles even when they're available online. quote: Originally posted by infooverload: I just came across Validea.com, another site trying to hold experts (or Gurus as they call them) accountable. What do you all think?
infooverload	posted 06-21-2000 05:14 PM I just came across Validea.com, another site trying to hold experts (or Gurus as they call them) accountable. What do you all think?
wassup?	posted 06-20-2000 03:41 PM I think the street's rankings are also based on a poll, at least partially. I think they surveyed institutional investors as a group of people who are simply looking for a leg up. I am not sure, but you can check their methedology out. quote: Originally posted by scripter: Individual Investor also ranks the analysts, but it's lame because it's based on a survey (which is essentially a popularity contest) rather than actual performance. Another problem with it is that it's only published once a year... if TheStreet's is updated on a regular basis I'll be pleasantly surprised.
dude	posted 06-20-2000 02:56 PM TheStreet deserves applause for pointing out these honest analysts, and the analysts themselves deserve a standing ovation for telling it like it is. Here they are: - Douglas Augenthaler, CIBC World Markets, Environmental Services - Richard Bilotti, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Movies & Entertainment - Steven Binder, Bear Stearns, Aerospace & Defense - Michael Exstein, Credit Suisse First Boston, Department Stores - John Herrlin Jr., Merrill Lynch, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production - Brett Hodess, Merrill Lynch, Semiconductor Equipment - John Mahedy, Sanford C. Bernstein, Integrated Oil & Gas - Ronald McIntosh, Fox-Pitt Kelton, Life & Health Insurance - Dan Niles, Lehman Brothers, Computer Storage & Peripherals - Marie Rossi, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Health Care Distributors & Services quote: Originally posted by KeithG: Honest Analysts-people that we willing to buck the trend and speak the truth in the face of their evil analyst brethren. i think theStreet describes them as lifesavers.
scripter	posted 06-20-2000 02:05 PM Individual Investor also ranks the analysts, but it's lame because it's based on a survey (which is essentially a popularity contest) rather than actual performance. Another problem with it is that it's only published once a year... if TheStreet's is updated on a regular basis I'll be pleasantly surprised.

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