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Author Topic:   The Economy
InvestorGuide Daily
Administrator
posted 06-05-2000 06:03 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for InvestorGuide Daily      Reply w/Quote
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer said the central bank’s recent increases in key interest rates were beginning to show an effect by slowing down the red-hot U.S. economy. (source: MSNBC) http://msnbc.com/news/416477.asp

KeithG
posted 06-05-2000 04:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for KeithG      Reply w/Quote
So, I think that the possibility of a rate hike is still there. the big numbers have yet to come, but let's suppose they are slightly less bullish, that the signs of inflation are still present, although not as much as in the past couple months. The Fed, in my opinion, would be crazy to raise rates...the fact is, the data we are getting now doesn't show the effects of the 50 basis points from the last fed meeting. So, the Fed tightened 25 points for several months, then finally raises 50. But, at that same time, the smaller increases began to take hold and appear in the data. If the Fed jacks rates again, they run the risk of over tightening. My feeling is that a month off cannot hurt--and if something crazy happens, then they can raise the rates between meetings. WE're in that tricky space where the Fed might screw up--and I would rather have them err on keeping the economy too hot for a month than too cold.

KG

hecubus
posted 06-05-2000 10:27 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for hecubus      Reply w/Quote
Well, I think you are sort of a classic example of how interest rates can slow the economy. You decided to move ahead with a mojor project becuase interest rates were low--there were and are plenty of people who react the same way and undertake big endeavors when rates are low. If the rates were high when you were STARTING your project, would you have done it? Maybe not, you would have thought a little harder. Now, I can't say I understand how loans such as yours work with the interest rate taking effect at the end of a project, i had thought that you could lock-in rates on a loan when you sign the contract, but maybe not. But, think about all the people with short-term loans...they probably will not want to start a big project right now because the rates are high...leading to a slowdown. The time-lag of when rates take effect is interesting and something I hadn't heard of before, but the principle remains.

And, one other note, people who don't care about high interest rates on their credit cards are being idiotic. If you carry a balance on your credit card, you are making a mistake, you can get a much better interest rate elsewhere if you need cash. The people who don't need to care about the interest rate on their credit cards are people who always pay off their balances on time. Those companies fleece you if you card a balance.


quote:
Originally posted by pup:
I am still confused about how raising interest rates slows the economy. People who have high interest rate credit cards usually don't care what the interest rate is. Some do but most do not.

pup
posted 06-02-2000 06:25 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for pup      Reply w/Quote
I am still confused about how raising interest rates slows the economy. People who have high interest rate credit cards usually don't care what the interest rate is. Some do but most do not.
In my situation, I contracted to build a vet clinic 6 years ago when interest rates were at their lowest. I was told at that time it would be a "good time" to build due to the favorable interest rates. Problem is, it has taken me 6 years to complete the project
(zoning, site plans, land purchase, architectural plans etc.) Now I am looking at the twice the intest rate since my loan doesn't close until the building is completed. The only way I will be able to make the payments is to raise my prices. Isn't that inflation?
I seems to me others will determine that because they cannot predict the interest rate when their project is complete, they will take a "laissez faire" attitude or it's too far away to worry about. Just do it at any price.
Pehaps I am so small that I don't make a dent in the overall scheme of things. I just don't understand how raising interest rates makes that much of a difference to the overall market.
quote:
Originally posted by InvestorGuide Daily:
Manufacturing activity is slowing down. Construction spending is tapering off. And one of Detroit's Big Wheels is warning that auto sales may be slipping into low gear. Here is CNNfn's full coverage of today's economic news and what it means for financial markets and you. (source: CNNfn) http://cnnfn.com/news/specials/eyes_on_economy
As the stock market tries to make up its mind which way to go next, the biggest unknown is: how much higher will interest rates go? A lot depends on whether — and how fast — the economy is slowing. But investors looking for evidence in Friday's employment report may be disappointed. (source: MSNBC) http://msnbc.com/news/414452.asp

In brief:

- The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits edged up slightly this past week but remained at a level indicating an extremely tight labor market.


InvestorGuide Daily
Administrator
posted 06-02-2000 05:32 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for InvestorGuide Daily      Reply w/Quote
Hiring by U.S. companies declined for the first time in more than four years in May while workers' wages barely budged and the unemployment rate edged higher -- the strongest signs yet that the world's largest economy may be slowing due to higher interest rates. (source: CNNfn) http://cnnfn.com/2000/06/02/economy/jobs

KeithG
posted 06-02-2000 10:00 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for KeithG      Reply w/Quote
Finally, someone took the time to paint a picture of why an economic slowdown is good for the markets. This is from our man on theStreet.com James Cramer, and I think it is highly recommended reading.

In other news, that Jimminy Cricket guy should be gloating right about now. He just might have been right...but, even with the signs of a slowdown, I wouldn't be surprised to see 25 points from the Fed as a sobering note for the markets. We'll see. But, those of us that wait for the data miss out on days like today...

http://www.thestreet.com/funds/smarter/951432.html

InvestorGuide Daily
Administrator
posted 06-01-2000 06:25 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for InvestorGuide Daily      Reply w/Quote
Manufacturing activity is slowing down. Construction spending is tapering off. And one of Detroit's Big Wheels is warning that auto sales may be slipping into low gear. Here is CNNfn's full coverage of today's economic news and what it means for financial markets and you. (source: CNNfn) http://cnnfn.com/news/specials/eyes_on_economy
As the stock market tries to make up its mind which way to go next, the biggest unknown is: how much higher will interest rates go? A lot depends on whether — and how fast — the economy is slowing. But investors looking for evidence in Friday's employment report may be disappointed. (source: MSNBC) http://msnbc.com/news/414452.asp

In brief:

- The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits edged up slightly this past week but remained at a level indicating an extremely tight labor market.

KeithG
posted 06-01-2000 01:40 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for KeithG      Reply w/Quote
WEll, this is really encouraging, it seems like the first signs of a slowdown are appearing. And the markets are taking to the news as one would expect. Almost everywhere I read, however, they are saying the Fed might "only" have to raise rates 25 basis points in June. And then, that may be the end. None of the pundits are saying the Fed is done. I would advise people to keep that in mind. If the markets are moving on thexpectation that the Fed is done, that might be a problem.

Also, I wonder if investors really understand all of this. I mean, sure, the Fed might be done, but do they get that Earnings are going to be hurt by this development? The implications fo an economic slowdown reach farther than just interest rates. I wonder if when the lower than usual earnings start to filter in if investors aren't going to freak out again. Comments?

InvestorGuide Daily
Administrator
posted 05-31-2000 06:19 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for InvestorGuide Daily      Reply w/Quote
Sales of new homes tumbled 5.8% in April while a key index of future economic activity slipped 0.1%, two signs that the Fed's higher interest rates are beginning to slow the economy. (source: Washington Post) http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A36719-2000May31.html

The FCC and the nation’s leading telecommunications firms have agreed to a massive retooling of telephone rates, reducing prices for most services and raising them for others. (source: CNNfn) http://cnnfn.com/2000/05/31/companies/fcc

KeithG
posted 05-31-2000 12:55 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for KeithG      Reply w/Quote
I guess this is good news and bad news. The new homes data dropped more than expected in the latest economic data. The signs are starting to show that the Fed's tightening may be grabbing hold. Of course, there is a lot of information that will need to be absorbed before mid-june when the Fed meets again. This just highlights my confusion at the consumer confidence numbers...why are consumers confident? The economy is being slowed down, whether they like it or not. The wealth created by the stock market has shrunk immensely. And, the labor market will most likely go south as the economy slows down...as a consumer, I'm nervous, not confident. maybe its just me.

KSG

InvestorGuide Daily
Administrator
posted 05-30-2000 06:02 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for InvestorGuide Daily      Reply w/Quote
Consumer confidence jumped sharply in May, approaching the all-time high it reached in January. The rise in the closely watched economic indicator suggested that a series of interest rate increases has not yet slowed down consumer spending. (source: MSNBC) http://msnbc.com/news/413895.asp


Months of talks with the European Union over a U.S. law that gives American exporters $4 billion in tax breaks a year have failed to produce a settlement, Deputy Treasury Secretary Stuart Eizenstat announced. (source: Washington Post) http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27505-2000May29.html

KeithG
posted 05-30-2000 04:03 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for KeithG      Reply w/Quote
Wanna adjust your statement after the consumer confidence numbers today? Maybe not, but I think you are wrong. Given the information out there now, I would be surprised if they didn't raise rates .25 points in June. Unless the numbers show clear signs of a slowdown and/or the market tanks big time, I think they have to raise. The statement at the last meeting created that bias and they don't want to create a positive surprise for the market.
Now, your November prediction seems more reasonable to me. I wouldn't be surprised to see them start to ease things pretty quickly once the numbers start showing a slowdown. Alan is just as scared of starting a recession as he is of letting inflation go crazy.

KSG

quote:
Originally posted by JIMNY CRICKET:
THe FEd is done with it's tightening, I say job well done and we will see them again in November when they lower rates .25
JIMNY

JIMNY CRICKET
unregistered
posted 05-29-2000 10:43 PM            Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by KeithG:
Yes, Virginia, it’s the Federal Reserve that stands between you and growing your assets by investing in equities.

No, Virginia, it’s not because the Fed doesn’t like you. It’s just that you and your friends have been using your stock market gains from the past few years to shop till you drop.

The more equities shrug off the Fed's rate increases, the more the Fed will boost rates until the stock market cries "uncle."
That, in turn, has boosted economic growth far beyond the speed limit of four percent that the Fed presumably wants.

And while the stock market has given up some of its gains in response to the five previous hikes in interest rates in the past eleven months, this apparently is not enough for Alan Greenspan and his band of merry central bankers.

Taking stock

That’s why they raised interest rates a half-point last week and implied that more was in store, come June. The Fed wants to see the stock market go even lower than it already has.

I told you that the Fed is targeting the stock market in my column of April 6 (see column), no matter how much Alan Greenspan may assert that he is not doing so. The Fed always has, and it always will.

This is because the stock market, through its effect on wealth and confidence, has a lot to do with people’s attitudes and abilities to spend. Needless to say, the performance of the market influences business decisions as well.

To be sure, higher interest rates have a direct effect on the economy by jacking up borrowing costs and impacting corporate profits. This alone should depress equities’ prices.

Lately, however, the stock market has thumbed its nose at the Fed as investors continue to exhibit exuberance.

More booster shots

Well, let me tell you this: The more equities shrug off the Fed’s rate increases, the more the Fed will boost rates until the stock market cries “uncle.”

If the stock market doesn’t fall significantly from current levels, look for another half-point rate hike next month. And if that doesn’t do it, expect another increase in August.

Before you fire up those nasty e-mails, remember this: I don’t make the rules; I just play the game.

And in case you haven’t figured it out, the name of the game is “Don’t Fight the Fed.” If you’re opposed to higher interest rates and lower stock prices—tell it to Alan Greenspan, not me.

That’s my final answer. [/B]


THe FEd is done with it's tightening, I say job well done and we will see them again in November when they lower rates .25
JIMNY

KeithG
posted 05-26-2000 11:37 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for KeithG      Reply w/Quote
I thought you might enjoy this column, Machiavelli. It is from MarketWatch's chief economist Irwin Kellner

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Want a quick way to make a million in the stock market? Start with two million—and bet against the Federal Reserve.

Yes, Virginia, it’s the Federal Reserve that stands between you and growing your assets by investing in equities.

No, Virginia, it’s not because the Fed doesn’t like you. It’s just that you and your friends have been using your stock market gains from the past few years to shop till you drop.

The more equities shrug off the Fed's rate increases, the more the Fed will boost rates until the stock market cries "uncle."
That, in turn, has boosted economic growth far beyond the speed limit of four percent that the Fed presumably wants.

And while the stock market has given up some of its gains in response to the five previous hikes in interest rates in the past eleven months, this apparently is not enough for Alan Greenspan and his band of merry central bankers.

Taking stock

That’s why they raised interest rates a half-point last week and implied that more was in store, come June. The Fed wants to see the stock market go even lower than it already has.

I told you that the Fed is targeting the stock market in my column of April 6 (see column), no matter how much Alan Greenspan may assert that he is not doing so. The Fed always has, and it always will.

This is because the stock market, through its effect on wealth and confidence, has a lot to do with people’s attitudes and abilities to spend. Needless to say, the performance of the market influences business decisions as well.

To be sure, higher interest rates have a direct effect on the economy by jacking up borrowing costs and impacting corporate profits. This alone should depress equities’ prices.

Lately, however, the stock market has thumbed its nose at the Fed as investors continue to exhibit exuberance.

More booster shots

Well, let me tell you this: The more equities shrug off the Fed’s rate increases, the more the Fed will boost rates until the stock market cries “uncle.”

If the stock market doesn’t fall significantly from current levels, look for another half-point rate hike next month. And if that doesn’t do it, expect another increase in August.

Before you fire up those nasty e-mails, remember this: I don’t make the rules; I just play the game.

And in case you haven’t figured it out, the name of the game is “Don’t Fight the Fed.” If you’re opposed to higher interest rates and lower stock prices—tell it to Alan Greenspan, not me.

That’s my final answer.

KeithG
posted 05-26-2000 10:42 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for KeithG      Reply w/Quote
The more I think about this, the more strongly I feel. The reason the Fed is concerned about inflation is that people are spending faster than their incomes are rising. People in this country have never been savers, when they have some cash, they want to spend it. There is a danger there, and it makes inflation a more significant problem. Everyone will be effected by the "economy" and individual investors can't separate themselves from the rest. government, and the fed is imperfect, but thaat is a far cry from being better off without both of them.

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