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Author	Topic: eToys (ETYS)
gatsby	posted 12-08-1999 02:41 PM Don't forget Toys R Us still owns the market in terms of brand awareness. I guarantee you that unless you are into net stocks, most people have never even heard of eToys. So I'm not surprised at all that they caught up. I also read an article that basically says eToys is a little lacking in the service department. Has anyone ever actually bought anything from them? if so, how was the service?
scripter	posted 12-07-1999 08:53 AM While I agree with most of what you've said, here are a few caveats: 1. Toys R Us' traffic has grown so fast in recent weeks because it's been advertising heavily. 2. Traffic isn't a very good measure of e-commerce success; it's all about selling, and the jury is still out on whether Toys R Us is able to convert these visitors into customers. 3. Toys R Us has had major outages in the last few weeks, which underscore the fact that it's not a trivial undertaking to build a world-class e-commerce site.
daffy	posted 12-06-1999 10:09 AM To those of you who thought eToys' first mover advantages would be insurmountable, think again. Toys R Us has already caught up. According to the latest Media Metrix numbers http://www.mediametrix.com/PressRoom/Press_Releases/11_28_99.html , the Toys R Us site now gets more visitors than eToys does, and Toys R Us is growing faster, too. Toys R Us vs. eToys will not be a sequel to Barnes&Noble vs. Amazon. eToys market cap is $6.4 billion, while Toys R Us is just $4.2 billion. Apparently that means the $11 billion (with a B) in annual sales that Toys R Us generates from their bricks and mortar stores are worth less than nothing. Pseudo-arbitrage opportunity: buy Toys R Us and sell eToys short.
optimist	posted 12-04-1999 03:34 PM Idealab and other shareholders just filed to sell 600,000 shares. I don't blame them, with competition intensifying the way it has been.
mr big	posted 11-24-1999 05:19 PM December 1999 will make or break this company. Net investors have no patience, and if eToys doesn't exceed revenue expectations this quarter, I don't see shareholders waiting until next year to see if things improve.
pgr22	posted 11-05-1999 03:00 PM The lockup that eToys' underwriters imposed as part of the company's IPO expires on 11/15. The float is currently about 11 million shares, but on 11/15, another 109 million shares will be eligible for public sale. This will probably cause significant downward pressure on the stock, so anyone considering buying eToys would probably benefit by waiting a few weeks.
scripter	posted 10-18-1999 12:15 PM Here's a pretty good report on eToys: http://www.witcapital.com/research/reports/rr_etys_991004.html They like the stock more than I do, and they don't seem too concerned about the growing number of competitors and the shrinking gross margins.
Art Vandelay	posted 09-14-1999 01:17 PM Another new competitor: SmarterKids.com. They just filed for an IPO. While I think eToys will remain the leader in this niche (unless Amazon catches them), there does seem to be a lot of competition coming, so I wouldn't feel comfortable holding this stock with such a high market cap.
netinvestor	posted 09-01-1999 03:32 PM Etoys is setting up shop in England for the holiday season. They are going to be getting the first mover advantage in this market. I'm not if there is enough internet use there to make it a rousing success this year but its a start. They really need to jump on this opportunity Toys R Us has presented of all this extra time while Toys R Us sorts out its strategy. I think Etoys is taking advantage of the opportunity in the states and abroad
InvestorGuide Weekly Administrator	posted 08-23-1999 12:21 PM Will Toys R Us be able to keep up with eToys? http://www.msnbc.com/news/302268.asp
newinvestor	posted 08-23-1999 11:47 AM Those are daunting numbers for etoys to overcome, but i just checked out the toysrus.com website. It is horrible! It doesn't look very nice, nor does it have any selection to speak of. Rumors are that they aren't revamping it enough to get ready for the holiday rush. If they don't get in this year it will be much harder to get in next year when a good deal of the market share and brand equity will be in place. I'm not saying buy etoys stock (its still way overvalued), but I might use them if I need to buy toys for some reason.
Masque	posted 08-19-1999 09:12 AM Here are pieces of a comparison I found between eToys and Toys R Us (market caps and stock price) you all may find useful (or not): "eToys is valued at nearly $4.1 billion. Toys "R" Us is valued slightly lower, at $4.06 billion. Toys "R" Us has $11.3 billion in sales and is profitable. eToys has $37 million in sales (0.33% of Toys "R" Us sales) and is years away from potential profit, and it has a similar $4 billion market value. "These similar valuations that investors see most of the estimated $39 billion in annual toy and baby sales moving online in the coming five to ten years, and they believe that eToys is in a position to capture much of the market. Enough upside is already built into the stock of eToys to make it unattractive to the average investor." "Assuming that eToys can capture 30% of the annual toy and baby market in the next decade (or the $11.7 billion in annual sales Toys "R" Us achieves now), and assuming that its market valuation is granted a premium over traditional toy leaders, what might be a fair price for the stock seven years from now? $8 billion? That's less than twice the current share price even before considering further share dilution. The S&P 500 doubles every seven years, on average, at much lower risk."
newinvestor	posted 08-18-1999 03:29 PM happyguy, Even if seasonal fluctuations were factored into all stock prices as they are in the perfectly efficient market that is out there somewhere that still wouldn't help for valuing etoys. This holiday season is the first real big holiday season, and the first big one for e-commerce all together. It is very difficult to predict what percentage of their yearly sales will take place during the holiday season. Last year it was more than 95% of the sales but i don't think we can expect that again. We certainly can expect a lot more sales this holiday season than last. In the spring sales were 21 times their previous year's numbers $7.9 million vs $381,000. An added bonus for the stock might be the thousands of new users to the site that are so impressed by it that they want to get in on the stock. It may not be enough people to impact the market at all, but if it begins getting good press as more people use it you never know Incidentally, the stock is heading up towards blodgett's $50 target today. When did he announce the target? yesterday? It is just that broker target fulfilling prophecy syndrome again...
happyguy	posted 08-18-1999 02:17 PM optimist, good point about it moving up... but aren't seasonal sales fluctuations supposed to be factored into a stock's market price
optimist	posted 08-18-1999 01:43 PM eToys is moving up today (finally)... partially because all the net stocks are moving up and partially because Henry Blodget at Merrill Lynch put a price target of $50 on the stock. While I think it's already overpriced, I wouldn't be surprised if it started moving even higher, in anticipation of a big holiday sales season.

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